≡
AN INSTRUMENT FOR CONTESTED TOPICS
▲ SWIPE UP — FULL INDEX
CASE INDEX06 CASES · LATEST ▾
CANCEL
FOR YOUGEOPOLITICALEUTECHNOLOGYAISCIENCELEGALCLOSED
⊕ HOME▦ INDEX◧ DESK◇ POOL
←CASE FILE 001 · LAST UPDATED JUL 14
Who attacked the Nord Stream? Sep 26 2022: four blasts cut both pipelines on the seabed off Bornholm. Germany's investigation continues — named suspects, extradition contested.
OVERVIEW POSITIONS EVIDENCE & FACTS CAUSAL SOURCES (62)
LATEST · JUL 14 — EXPLOSIVES-ORIGIN CHALLENGE REGISTERED (E30)→
CURRENT UNDERSTANDING · JUL 14Both Nord Stream pipelines were cut by seabed charges in September 2022. Three years on, the record converges on a six-person team operating from the chartered yacht Andromeda — a German court has affirmed the operation’s structure. Who authorized it, and whether a state directed it, remains genuinely open.
⚡ THE LIVE QUESTIONS
Q1 Who executed it? 9 CANDIDATES · 2 GATED Q2 Did US intelligence enable it, at what level? Q3 Did Poland support or tolerate it?
RECORDED EVENTS — 16 RECORDS + 3 SILENCE EDGES · ◆ = TURNING POINT
■ RECORD · ◉ ORIGIN · ◆ TURNING POINT (LEADER CHANGE OR ≥5-PT SHIFT) · ▣ LOAD-BEARING · □ LIVING EDGE
SEP 26 2022Two detonation waves 17 hours apart, four blast sites off BornholmF1–F4 · SEISMIC + NAVAL CONFIRMATION↗ ORIGINAL · CASE OVERVIEW
OCT 2022Sweden, Denmark, Germany open investigations; Russia excluded from all threeRU BLAMES "ANGLO-SAXONS" SAME WEEK — REGISTER, NOT EVIDENCE
FEB 08 2023Hersh: US covert operation — one anonymous source; White House denies same dayE1 / E2 · UNCORROBORATED · FEEDS C1 ONLY↗ ORIGINAL · HERSH SUBSTACK
MAR 07 2023NYT: a "pro-Ukrainian group" — first re-direction of the attribution frameE3 · ENTERS WESTERN-INTEL-LEAK CLUSTER↗ ORIGINAL · NYT
MAR 2023Andromeda identified (Zeit / ARD / SWR): chartered yacht, six-person team, explosive traces in the cabin◆ TURNING POINT · Δ +4.76 — FIRST CAUSAL-MODALITY EVIDENCE▲ E6 LOAD-BEARING · C2/C3 DECOUPLE FROM C1↗ ORIGINAL · RFE/RL
APR 2023Kiesewetter: "evidence far too thin"; decoy hypothesis aired by investigatorsE7 · META-CHALLENGE — CLIPS E6'S WEIGHT↗ ORIGINAL · WASHINGTON POST
JUN 2023Discord leaks: CIA warned Germany of a Ukrainian plan in June 2022E5 · SAME LEAK CLUSTER — DAMPENED, BARELY MOVES
NOV 2023Chervinsky named as coordinator (WaPo + Spiegel); Ukraine deniesE4 · CLUSTER-DAMPENED — SHAPE UNCHANGED
FEB 2024Sweden, then Denmark, close their files without naming anyone◆ TURNING POINT · Δ +7.95 — UNCERTAINTY ITSELF FORMALIZEDE8 / E9 · JURISDICTION NARROWS TO GERMANY↗ ORIGINAL · SWEDISH PROSECUTOR
JUN 2024German EU arrest warrant: diving instructor Volodymyr Z.E10 · FIRST NAMED EXECUTOR↗ ORIGINAL · KYIV INDEPENDENT
JUL 06 2024Z. exits Poland in a Ukrainian embassy diplomatic-plate car; Berlin refuses the US-involvement question days later◆ TURNING POINT · Δ +8.11 — LARGEST SINGLE-STEP SHIFT▲ E12 LOAD-BEARING · STATE-DIRECTION SPLITS FROM INDEPENDENT (+E15)↗ ORIGINAL · UKRAINSKA PRAVDA
AUG 14 2024WSJ: Zaluzhnyi-supervised operation; presidential approval withdrawn under CIA pressureE11 · THE REPORT THAT SPLITS α FROM ε (E31)↗ ORIGINAL · WSJ COVERAGE
OCT 2024Weltwoche: USS Kearsarge UUV capability reopens US technical feasibilityE16 · LOW CREDIBILITY — KEEPS C1 ABOVE THE FLOOR
AUG 21 2025Serhii K. arrested at Rimini — alleged coordinator; judicial track goes liveE13 · RAISES BOTH C2 AND C3 — DOES NOT SPLIT THEM↗ ORIGINAL · EUROMAIDAN PRESS
OCT 17 2025Warsaw court refuses extradition, releases Zhuravlov — "not a crime in a defensive war"▲ E14 LOAD-BEARING · POLITICAL-PROTECTION SIGNAL → STATE-DIRECTION↗ ORIGINAL · NOTES FROM POLAND
DEC 2025BGH ruling affirms the operation's structure, evades authorizationF13 · STRONGEST ANCHOR TO DATE
JUL 14 2026Living merge: explosives-origin challenge registered, unresolvedE30 ⚠ SINGLE OUTLET · WATCHING
SILENCE IS ALSO ON THE GRAPH: US IC SILENCE (+C1) · RU FALSE-FLAG QUIETLY DROPPED (−C4) · NATO SILENCE ON UKRAINE (+α)
WHERE THE EVIDENCE POINTS TODAY
EACH CANDIDATE RATED ON THE SUPPORT AXIS — EVIDENCE STRENGTH, NOT PROBABILITY
Q1 WHO EXECUTED · WHICH ACTOR CARRIED OUT THE BLASTS?
INSUFPLAUSSUPPWELL
Ukraine · military bypass
Ukraine · agency authorization
Ukraine · presidential
Penetrated / staged
United States · other means
United Kingdom
Ukraine-linked rogue
LEADER WOE 7.44 / 3 CHANNELS · COVERAGE: α 53 · γ 15 · β 7 · UNENUMERATED 24
EXCLUDED BY FORENSIC STRUCTURE ✕ US · HERSH SCENARIO · WHY → ✕ RU · FALSE FLAG · WHY →
Q2 US ENABLING · DID US INTELLIGENCE ENABLE THE OPERATION?
INSUFPLAUSSUPPWELL
Passive foreknowledge
Active enabling
No US enabling
Q3 POLAND — NO RATED CANDIDATES · 61% ZERO-COVERAGE
AXIS POSITION = RATED WEIGHT OF EVIDENCE A CANDIDATE ABSORBS — "WELL SUPPORTED" IS NOT "TRUE"
WHAT IT WOULD TAKE TO FLIP
β needs +4.46 WoE (≈ 1×strong + 1×weak). Three open tests: explosives origin · GUR↔staff chain · second-team seismic reading. Survives any single record removal.
WHY IT STAYS OPEN
2 of 4 national investigations closed without conclusions
Classified holdings: US + German third-party-rule material
Adversarially polluted environment — 9 records in the suppression ledger
SOURCES
62 SOURCES · 10 LANGUAGE ECOSYSTEMS · DE EN RU UK PL +5 · SOURCES →
> WHO SAYS WHAT — POSITIONS_
4 COMPETING CAUSAL STRUCTURES · AUTHORIZATION RESOLVES STRUCTURALLY — NOT BY VOTE
αS-ALPHA-BYPASS · military track runs onLEADS
EXT_SUPPLY ─┐ MIL_ORDER ──┴► EXEC_TEAM ──► RUPTURE │ └──────► FORENSICS ▼ US_FOREKNOWLEDGE ──► PRES_AUTH
E31: APPROVAL WITHDRAWN UNDER US PRESSURE — PRES_AUTH IS AN EFFECT, NOT A CAUSE · FEEDS α (C2b)
εS-EPSILON · full chain of command8%
PRES_AUTH ▼ MIL_ORDER ──► US_FOREKNOWLEDGE ▼ EXEC_TEAM ◄── EXT_SUPPLY ├──► RUPTURE └──► FORENSICS
REQUIRES E31'S WITHDRAWAL REPORTING TO BE WRONG · FEEDS C2a
νS-NATO-BROAD · outside principal0 COV
NATO_DIRECTION (UNOBSERVED) ├──► EXEC_TEAM ─► RUPTURE · FORENSICS ├──► EXT_SUPPLY └──► US_FOREKNOWLEDGE ─► PRES_AUTH
UKRAINIAN AUTHORIZATION AGAIN AN EFFECT OF PRESSURE · FEEDS A3 / C5 — NO COVERAGE TODAY
βS-A2-PENETRATION · staged chain7%
RUPTURE ◄╌╌╌╌╌╌► FORENSICS (LATENT COMMON CAUSE — A STAGING ACTOR)
THE FORENSIC TRAIL ITSELF IS THE PLANT · MUST DISPLACE 17-H INTERVAL + HMX ACCESS
THE SPLITTING OBSERVABLE
α and ε share every edge but one. They split on E31: was presidential approval withdrawn under US pressure while the military track continued? Reporting holds → α. Reporting wrong → ε.
STRUCTURES RANK BY WHICH GRAPH ABSORBS THE RECORD — ARROWS ARE CLAIMS, NOT FACTS
✓ WHAT NOBODY DISPUTES
Two detonation waves, 17 hours apart · four blast sites · seabed charges · sabotage, not accident
THE RECORD — WHAT EACH PIECE CAN AND CANNOT CARRY
ALL 47ANCHORS F1–13JUDICIALINTEL-LEAK
F7 · ANCHORED FACTDE-J · 2026
DNA + residue link named executors to Andromeda
▮▮▮▮ WELL SUPPORTED · FORENSIC + JUDICIAL · 3 CHANNELS
SUPPORTS α γ · CONTRADICTS C1 C4 · ONLY SHOWS: EXECUTOR LINK, NOT AUTHORIZATION
E30 · EVIDENCESINGLE OUTLET ⚠
Explosives reportedly not from Ukrainian military stock
▮▮▯▯ PLAUSIBLE · SINGLE OUTLET · UNCORROBORATED
CHALLENGES α SPINE · UNRESOLVED · MISSING: SOURCING CHAIN
E32 · SUPPRESSION LEDGER3RD-PARTY RULE
US classified holdings withheld from German file
▯▯▯▯ GATED · CANNOT BE RATED UNTIL RELEASED
⚠ WEAKEST LINK
The Western intel-leak cluster is one origin behind six outlets — it never compounds. And the leading read's spine still carries an unresolved single-outlet challenge (E30, explosives origin).
EACH RECORD: STRENGTH · SUPPORTS · CONTRADICTS · ONLY SHOWS · MISSING
62 SOURCES · 10 LANGUAGE ECOSYSTEMS · ORIGIN-CLUSTERED
WESTERN INTEL LEAKS⚠ ONE ORIGIN, 6 OUTLETS
WSJ · Die Zeit · ARD chain traces to one leak channel — dampened, never compounds.
JUDICIAL CONVERGENCEINDEPENDENT
German federal file · Italian arrest record · BGH ruling — separate institutions, same direction.
BY LANGUAGE
DE 18EN 21RU 9UK 6PL 4+5
4 AGREEING OUTLETS ≠ 4 INDEPENDENT SOURCES — WEIGHT FOLLOWS ORIGINS
REGISTER MAP — TONE × PROXIMITY · WEIGHT ZERO IN THE MODEL
HOT · MORAL VOCABULARY COOL · PROCEDURAL STEPS IN →
RU STATE PL / UK ◆
READ A REGISTER — TAP ANY POINT ON THE MAP
RP4 · BGH RULING COVERAGEDE-J
Affirmative on structure, evasive on naming. DOES NOT SHOW: whether the operation occurred as α describes — register is positional, never causal support.
STANCE BY ECOSYSTEM
🇷🇺 RUKremlin / MFA — "Anglo-Saxons" did it; demands a UN inquiryDEFLECTING
🇺🇸 ENWhite House — denies involvement or foreknowledge at every levelDENYING
🇩🇪 DEFederal prosecutor — names executors, stays silent on the chain of commandPROCEDURAL
🇺🇦 UKPresidency denies authorization — while popular registers run proud, near-celebratory◆ CELEBRATORY
🇵🇱 PLWarsaw — "not in Poland's interest to apologize"; extradition refused◆ PRIDE / REFUSAL
◆ REGISTERS WITH INFERENTIAL PULL
The Polish court's "not a crime in a defensive war" and Ukrainian celebratory tone prove nothing about authorization — but they price political protection, the observable that most separates state-direction from a freelance read.
FILTER BLINDSPOT
YOUR BUBBLE · EN-FIRST READERSKETCH
What your feed least shows you: PL court reasoning (4 records) · UK celebratory registers (6) · RU procedural demands (9). Registers you haven't been exposed to are surfaced first.
REGISTER CHECKS STORYLINE COHERENCE — NEVER PRIMARY SUPPORT
←CASE FILE 002 · LAST UPDATED JUL 14
Taiwan Strait posture, 2028 PLA exercises around Taiwan have escalated toward blockade rehearsal since 2022. Tracked here: which posture the record supports by 2028.
OVERVIEW POSITIONS EVIDENCE & FACTS CAUSAL SOURCES (48)
CURRENT UNDERSTANDING · JUL 14This case tracks PLA capability and posture around Taiwan toward 2028. Exercises have normalized a blockade-shaped presence in the strait; what’s contested is whether capability growth reflects intent to act. No causal structure linking posture to a decision has survived challenge yet.
LATEST · JUL 14 — DUAL-USE FERRY PRODUCTION SURGE REGISTERED (E41)→
MODE FORECAST · RESOLUTION 2028-01-01
Exercises, incursions, signaling short of war. The question is not "will they invade" — it is which operative posture best fits by the resolution date.
CAPABILITY (BLOCKADE)
PARTIAL LEADS · 54% CAPABILITY→POSTURE LINK
GRAPH NOT SETTLED
⊘ NOT COMPUTED
"Will they invade" as a bare probability · leadership intent as fact — settled only: posture does not cause capability
RECORDED EVENTS — 14 RECORDS · ◆ = TURNING POINT
■ RECORD · ◉ ORIGIN · ◆ TURNING POINT · ▣ LOAD-BEARING · □ LIVING EDGE
AUG 2022Encirclement drills follow the Pelosi visit; the median line stops existing as a normF1 · BASELINE SHIFT · AIS + SATELLITE↗ ORIGINAL · CASE OVERVIEW
APR 2023"Joint Sword" follows the Tsai–McCarthy meeting; carrier operations east of the islandF3 · PATTERN REPEATS — VISIT → DRILL
MAY 2024Lai inauguration answered by Joint Sword-2024A within 72 hours◆ TURNING POINT — RESPONSE TIME ITSELF BECOMES THE SIGNALF8 · SIGNALING CADENCE FORMALIZED↗ ORIGINAL · JOINT SWORD-2024A
OCT 2024Joint Sword-2024B rehearses port-and-energy interdiction; geometry shifts from landing to blockadeF9 · AIS + SATELLITE CONFIRMED
APR 2025Strait Thunder-2025A: coast-guard-led "inspection" drills — quarantine grammar enters official language◆ TURNING POINT — LAW-ENFORCEMENT FRAMING OPENS A NON-MILITARY PATH▲ F14 LOAD-BEARING · QUARANTINE REGIME CANDIDATE OPENS
AUG 2025Allied assessments converge on "capability by 2027" while marking intent unresolvedE24 · META-ASSESSMENT — CAPABILITY ≠ DECISION
FEB 2026Encirclement tempo reaches near-monthly; no de-escalation channel restoredF19 · TEMPO ANCHOR
MAY 2026Exercise adds an energy-terminal interdiction cell; customs officials appear in a quarantine tabletopE33 · TWO ORIGINS · FEEDS QUARANTINE READ
JUL 2026Living merge: dual-use ferry production surge registered — capability, not intentE41 ⚠ SINGLE ORIGIN · WATCHING
WHERE THE EVIDENCE POINTS TODAY
POSTURE CANDIDATES · EVIDENCE FIT TODAY — NOT ODDS FOR 2028
Gray-zone escalation, short of blockade54%
Quarantine / "inspection" regime30%
Declared military blockade6%
Kinetic action5%
Sustained status quo5%
SOURCES
48 SOURCES · ZH 16 · EN 19 · JA 6 · KO 3 · +4 · SOURCES →
> WHO SAYS WHAT — POSITIONS_
CAPABILITY→POSTURE LINK · 2 COMPETING STRUCTURES · GRAPH NOT SETTLED
S_CAP_GATE · capability gates escalation
LEADERSHIP_INTENT ├──► CAPABILITY ──┐ └─────────────────┴► POSTURE_2028
REALIZED CAPABILITY IS ITSELF AN ENABLER — BLOCKADE REHEARSALS RAISE ESCALATION READINGS
S_INTENT_ONLY · capability as signal
LEADERSHIP_INTENT ├──► CAPABILITY (SIGNAL ONLY) └──► POSTURE_2028
INTENT DRIVES BOTH — CAPABILITY ADDS NO INDEPENDENT PUSH TOWARD ESCALATION
⊘ LEADERSHIP_INTENT — DECLARED UNMEASURED
The deconfounding test is blocked. The same exercise record reads as escalation under S_CAP_GATE and as theater under S_INTENT_ONLY.
Settled either way: posture does not cause capability. Everything else about the link is open — which is why the forecast is structural, never a bare probability.
BOTH STRUCTURES ARE STANDING CHALLENGE TARGETS — DISPUTE AN EDGE, NOT A NUMBER
REGISTER MAP — TONE × PROXIMITY · WEIGHT ZERO IN THE FORECAST
HOT · MORAL VOCABULARY COOL · PROCEDURAL STEPS IN →
PLA ◆ MND
READ A REGISTER — TAP ANY POINT ON THE MAP
RP3 · US OFFICIAL TESTIMONYEN
"2027 readiness window" framing repeats from a handful of hearings. DOES NOT SHOW: a forecast — capability language flattened into timeline headlines by outlets.
STANCE BY ECOSYSTEM
ZHPLA Eastern Theater — drills are a "stern warning to separatist forces"RITUAL FORMULA
ZHTaiwan MND — publishes daily incursion counts; "prepare, don’t provoke"PROCEDURAL
ENUS INDOPACOM — "2027 readiness window"; capability framing, not forecastCAPABILITY
ENBeijing MOFA — reunification a "historical inevitability"; timelines "fabrication"INEVITABILITY
JAJapan MOD white paper — "a Taiwan contingency is a Japan contingency"CONTINGENCY
◆ REGISTERS WITH INFERENTIAL PULL
The official "stern warning" formula has not changed since 2022 — while ZH social registers run hot and militarist. The gap is the tell: a change in the state formula would move this case more than any exercise.
FILTER BLINDSPOT
YOUR BUBBLE · EN-FIRST READERSKETCH
What your feed least shows you: ZH social registers (7 records) · Taiwan’s domestic defense debate (5) · JA white-paper detail (3).
STANCES CALIBRATE REGISTERS — THEY NEVER MOVE THE FORECAST
✓ WHAT NOBODY DISPUTES
Encirclement exercises since 2022 · near-daily median-line incursions · blockade-geometry rehearsals — all independently tracked
THE RECORD — WHAT EACH PIECE CAN AND CANNOT CARRY
ALL 43ANCHORS F1–19EXERCISE DATAPROCUREMENT
F6 · ANCHORED FACTAIS + SAT · 2024
Blockade-geometry rehearsal verified across three independent trackers
▮▮▮▮ WELL SUPPORTED · 3 INDEPENDENT TRACKERS
SUPPORTS GRAY-ZONE · QUARANTINE · ONLY SHOWS: CAPABILITY, NOT TASKING
E41 · EVIDENCESINGLE ORIGIN ⚠
Dual-use ferry production surge at three yards
▮▮▯▯ PLAUSIBLE · SINGLE ORIGIN
CHALLENGES STATUS QUO · UNRESOLVED · MISSING: MILITARY TASKING ORDERS
E44 · SUPPRESSION LEDGERSTATE OPACITY
PLA procurement ledgers closed — capability estimates carry stated error bars
▯▯▯▯ GATED · STATE OPACITY
⚠ WEAKEST LINK
Everything observable here is capability. The single record pointing beyond it — the ferry-production surge (E41) — is one origin, unreplicated. No record in the case carries intent.
EACH RECORD: WHAT IT IS · SUPPORTS · CONTRADICTS · ONLY SHOWS · MISSING
48 SOURCES · 6 LANGUAGE ECOSYSTEMS · ORIGIN-CLUSTERED
OSINT TRACKER NETWORKINDEPENDENT
Satellite + AIS analysts with separate methods converge on exercise geometry.
US OFFICIAL TESTIMONY⚠ ONE ORIGIN, MANY OUTLETS
"2027 window" repeats across headlines from a handful of hearings — dampened, never compounds.
BY LANGUAGE
ZH 16EN 19JA 6KO 3+4
4 AGREEING OUTLETS ≠ 4 INDEPENDENT SOURCES — WEIGHT FOLLOWS ORIGINS
←CASE FILE 003 · LAST UPDATED JUL 14
Is the Strait of Hormuz blocked? Seizures and tripled war-risk premiums have cut Hormuz transits ~40% since late June. "Blocked" depends on which passage regime the evidence fits.
OVERVIEW POSITIONS EVIDENCE & FACTS CAUSAL SOURCES (31)
CURRENT UNDERSTANDING · ADV-1 JUL 14A snapshot case: is the Strait of Hormuz blocked? Physical transit continues, but war-risk pricing, refused hulls and rerouting have pushed flows well below baseline. The leading reading — functionally constrained, not closed — survived the July red-team pass, though its spine weakened.
LATEST · JUL 14 — ADV-PASS-1 MERGED: LEADER HOLDS, SPINE WEAKENS→
V0.1 JUL 12 → V0.2 → ● ADV-PASS-1 JUL 14 · 25 RECORDS
Tankers reroute, war-risk cover wavers, every party denies. "Blocked?" resolves into six enumerated passage regimes — a state snapshot, not a story.
RECORDED EVENTS — 25 RECORDS · DAY BY DAY
■ RECORD · ◉ ORIGIN · ◆ TURNING POINT · ▣ LOAD-BEARING · □ LIVING EDGE · IN-CASE RECORDS — NO EXTERNAL LINKS
JUN 24 2026Two tankers seized within 36 hours; crews heldF1–F2 · MULTI-PARTY CONFIRMATION
JUN 26IRGC patrol craft ride alongside inbound VLCCs; filmed, undeniedF3 · VISUAL + AIS · FEEDS PR1
JUN 27War-risk premiums triple; first flag states pause transits◆ TURNING POINT — THE MARKET, NOT THE NAVY, BECOMES THE MECHANISM▲ F4 LOAD-BEARING · INSURANCE CIRCULARS · FEEDS PR3/PR4
JUN 30Qatar LNG pauses laden transits; majors continue premium-only passageF6 · CHARTER RECORDS · SPLITS PR3 FROM PR0
JUL 02Tehran floats "authorized channel" fee language, then denies itE9 ⚠ SINGLE CHANNEL · UNVERIFIED · FEEDS PR2 ONLY
JUL 06AIS: transits down 41% week-on-week; Cape reroutes confirmed▲ F5 LOAD-BEARING · STRONGEST ANCHOR IN THE CASE
JUL 09Escorted convoy transits unmolested, filmed end to endF11 · CONTRADICTS PR5 — KEEPS "FORMAL BLOCKADE" LOW
JUL 12V0.1 snapshot published — six passage regimes enumeratedCASE OPENS · 19 RECORDS
JUL 14Adversarial pass merged: leader holds, its spine weakens◆ TURNING POINT — UNCERTAINTY RE-PRICED BY RED TEAMADV-PASS-1 · 35/50 DISPUTES ACCEPTED · 11 DOWNGRADES
JUL 18Living: war-risk refusal data requested from three P&I clubs — PR4 vs PR0 split test pendingE30 · WATCHING
CURRENT REGIME READ
PASSAGE REGIME · SHARE OF EVIDENCE — NOT PROBABILITY
PR3Shipping self-avoidance26.0%
PR2Fee / "authorized channel" regime21.5%
PR1Selective interception / seizure17.2%
PR4Insurance-driven de-facto closure13.6%
PR5Formal military blockade11.8%
PR0Normal passage, premium only9.9%
OPEN SPLIT TESTS: PR3 VS PR1/PR2 — NEEDS AIS TRACKS · PR4 VS PR0 — NEEDS WAR-RISK REFUSAL DATA
SOURCES
31 SOURCES · FA 8 · EN 11 · AR 7 · +5 · SOURCES →
> WHO SAYS WHAT — POSITIONS_
⊘ NO STRUCTURES AUTHORED
Exhibit-tier snapshot: all six regimes entered at evidential value — no structural exclusions, no authored causal graphs yet.
WHAT A STRUCTURE WOULD DECIDE
PR3vs PR1 / PR2 — what causes the avoidance?
SEIZURES ──?──► TRANSITS ▼41% FEE_REGIME ──?──► TRANSITS ▼41%
SAME OBSERVABLE, TWO PARENTS · NEEDS: PER-VESSEL AIS TRACKS AT THE DECISION POINT
PR4vs PR0 — is insurance doing the closing?
COVER_REFUSAL ──?──► DE-FACTO CLOSURE
NEEDS: WAR-RISK REFUSAL DATA — INSURER LISTS CONFIDENTIAL (E17) · TEST BLOCKED
A SNAPSHOT CASE GRADUATES TO STRUCTURES WHEN A SPLIT TEST UNBLOCKS
REGISTER MAP — TONE × PROXIMITY · ZERO WEIGHT IN EVERY MODE
HOT · MORAL VOCABULARY COOL · PROCEDURAL STEPS IN →
IRGC ◆ LLOYD'S
READ A REGISTER — TAP ANY POINT ON THE MAP
RP2 · IRAN MFA BRIEFINGSFA
"The strait is open; reports are psychological warfare." DOES NOT SHOW: transit reality — flat denial while AIS shows a 41% drop; the gap is itself a record.
STANCE BY ECOSYSTEM
FAIRGC Navy — closure conditioned on end of US interventionsCONDITIONAL THREAT
FAIran MFA — "the strait is open; reports are psychological warfare"DENYING
AROman + Qatar MFA — reject fee regime; unconditional reopeningMEDIATING
ENUS Fifth Fleet — "escorted transit continues; freedom of navigation holds"ASSERTIVE
ENLloyd’s market bulletin — cover "under continuous review"◆ NON-DENIAL
◆ REGISTERS WITH INFERENTIAL PULL
Every state is free to say anything — denials and threats cost nothing. The market cannot: Lloyd’s "continuous review" and P&I club silence price real risk. The insurance register moves this case; speeches don’t.
FILTER BLINDSPOT
YOUR BUBBLE · EN-FIRST READERSKETCH
What your feed least shows you: FA conditional-threat grammar (6 records) · AR mediation detail (5) · insurance circular texts (4).
SIX REGIMES, SIX VOCABULARIES — THE STANCE PATTERN IS ITSELF A RECORD
✓ WHAT NOBODY DISPUTES
Two tankers seized · war-risk premiums tripled · transits down ~40% · Cape reroutes confirmed
THE RECORD — WHAT EACH PIECE CAN AND CANNOT CARRY
ALL 25AIS F1–8INSURANCESTATEMENTS
F5 · ANCHORED FACTAIS-VERIFIED · JUL 06
Transits down 41% week-on-week; Cape reroutes confirmed
▮▮▮▮ WELL SUPPORTED · AIS + PORT LOGS
SUPPORTS PR3 PR4 · ONLY SHOWS: AVOIDANCE, NOT ITS CAUSE
E9 · EVIDENCESINGLE CHANNEL ⚠
"Authorized channel" fee receipts circulating on Telegram
▮▯▯▯ INSUFFICIENT · UNVERIFIED ISSUER
SUPPORTS PR2 · UNVERIFIED ISSUER · MISSING: ONE CONFIRMABLE TRANSACTION
E17 · SUPPRESSION LEDGERCOMMERCIAL
Insurer refusal lists confidential — PR4 vs PR0 test blocked
▯▯▯▯ GATED · COMMERCIAL CONFIDENTIALITY
⚠ WEAKEST LINK
The fee-regime read (PR2) rests entirely on E9 — one unverified channel Tehran itself denied. And the PR4-vs-PR0 split is blocked on war-risk refusal data not yet obtained.
EACH RECORD: WHAT IT IS · SUPPORTS · CONTRADICTS · ONLY SHOWS · MISSING
31 SOURCES · 5 LANGUAGE ECOSYSTEMS · ORIGIN-CLUSTERED
TRACKING DATAINDEPENDENT
AIS aggregators, port logs, insurance circulars — separate pipelines, same direction.
GULF STATE MEDIA⚠ COORDINATED
FA/AR outlets move in step with ministries — one origin per bloc, dampened.
BY LANGUAGE
FA 8EN 11AR 7+5
4 AGREEING OUTLETS ≠ 4 INDEPENDENT SOURCES — WEIGHT FOLLOWS ORIGINS
←DEMO CASE
◼ FILE IN PRODUCTION
This is a placeholder topic. Its case file has not been curated yet — vote in the pool to prioritize it.
◇ GO TO POOL
←> MENU
⊙
GUEST — NOT SIGNED IN SIGN IN TO SYNC TRACES + VOTES ACROSS DEVICES
SIGN IN / CREATE ACCOUNT →
// NAVIGATE
◐ GLOBE→
▦ CASE INDEX→
// TOPICS
◧ YOUR DESK2 UPDATES→
◇ TOPIC POOL→
+ PROPOSE A TOPIC→
// SYSTEM
⚙ SETTINGS→
▨ SUBSCRIPTIONFREE→
⚐ FEEDBACK→
TRACE v0.4 · AN INSTRUMENT FOR CONTESTED TOPICS
←> SETTINGS
// NOTIFICATIONS
DEFAULT TRACE LEVELAPPLIED WHEN YOU TRACE A NEW CASEMAJOR ONLY
DIGESTBUNDLED CHANGES, RANKED BY MATERIALITYWEEKLY
PUSH NOTIFICATIONSMASTER SWITCH — EVERY CATEGORY BELOWON
RECEIPTS + BILLING NOTICES ARE ALWAYS SENT — NEVER SILENCED.
// READING
TEXT SIZENORMAL / LARGE — ALL READING SURFACESNORMAL
ORIGINAL-LANGUAGE QUOTESSHOW SOURCE LANGUAGE NEXT TO TRANSLATIONON
CONFIDENCE FORMATHOW SUPPORT LEVELS ARE DISPLAYEDBARS
// DATA
OFFLINE CACHEKEEP TRACED CASE FILES ON DEVICEOFF
CLEAR LOCAL DATAVOTES + TRACES ON THIS DEVICECLEAR →
// TESTER PROGRAM
// ACCOUNT
SIGN IN / CREATE ACCOUNTGUEST — NOTHING SYNCED→
←> ACCOUNT✕ CLOSE
Sign in — or create your account. One address does both. No password — we send a 6-digit code. A known address signs you back in; a new one creates your account.
// EMAIL
CONTINUE
NOTHING ON THIS DEVICE IS LOST — LOCAL TRACES AND VOTES MERGE INTO YOUR ACCOUNT.
←> PLANS✕ CLOSE
One membership. The whole instrument.
RECOMMENDED
MEMBER — MONTHLYCANCEL ANYTIME
€8.99/ MONTH
EARLY-ACCESS RATE — STANDARD PRICING WILL BE HIGHER
✓CASES YOU CAN TRACEUNLIMITED
✓VOICE MAPPING & EVIDENCE LEDGERALL CASES
✓CAUSAL & DEEP POSITION ANALYSISOPEN
✓WEEKLY DIFF ON TRACED CASESFULL
✓VOTING CREDITS / MONTH5
✓PROPOSE NEW CASE TOPICS
START MONTHLY — €8.99/MO →
FOUNDING 30 · LIMITED
FOUNDING 30 — ANNUAL7 OF 30 LEFT
€89/ YEAR €107.88 SAVE 18%
€7.42 / MONTH — CHARGED €89 TODAY
✓EVERYTHING IN MONTHLY
+PRICE LOCKED AT €89 — SURVIVES THE LAUNCH PRICE RISE
+RARE FOUNDING BADGE ON YOUR CONTRIBUTOR PROFILE
+NUMBERED SEAT · FOUNDING COUNCIL
+EARLY ACCESS TO NEW FEATURES · PRIORITY REVIEW
CLAIM A FOUNDING SEAT — €89 →
LOCK HOLDS WHILE YOUR ANNUAL MEMBERSHIP STAYS ACTIVE — LAPSE, REFUND OR CANCELLATION ENDS IT
FREE — WHAT YOU HAVE NOWYOUR CURRENT PLAN
€0FOREVER
✓CASES YOU CAN TRACE3
✓VOICE MAPPING & EVIDENCE LEDGERSHOWCASE CASE ONLY
✗CAUSAL & DEEP POSITION ANALYSISLOCKED
✗WEEKLY DIFF ON TRACED CASESHEADLINES ONLY
✓VOTING CREDITS / MONTH5
✗PROPOSE NEW CASE TOPICSLOCKED
VAT INCLUDED · CANCEL ANYTIME · ACCESS ACTIVATES WHEN PAYMENT IS CONFIRMED
←> SUBSCRIPTION✕ CLOSE
CURRENT PLAN● ACTIVE
Free
// USAGE
TRACED CASES0
VOTING CREDITS THIS MONTHRESETS 1ST OF MONTH, 00:00 UTC · NO CARRY-OVER5
// BILLING
MANAGE PAYMENT & RECEIPTSOPENS STRIPE CUSTOMER PORTALPORTAL →
// PLAN
SEE ALL PLANS→
←> CHECKOUT
PLAN
CHARGED TODAY
// PROMO OR FRIEND CODE
APPLY
// PAYMENT — CARD
CARD NUMBER
4242 4242 4242 4242
EXPIRY
09 / 27
CVC
···
HANDLED BY STRIPE — TRACE NEVER SEES THE NUMBER
READY Payment runs on Stripe. Your membership activates when the payment is confirmed by the server — not when this page says success.
CONTINUE TO PAYMENT →
PROTOTYPE — REAL FLOW REDIRECTS TO STRIPE CHECKOUT
←> TESTER INVITE✕ CLOSE
You were asked in for a reason. Trace is being built with a small circle of first investigators. Your code opens the whole instrument for 14 days — no card, no charge, nothing renews. When it ends, you choose.
// YOUR CODE
REDEEM
// WHAT THE CODE OPENS — 14 DAYS
✓EVERY CASE IN FULL — POSITIONS, EVIDENCE, CAUSAL, SOURCES
✓UNLIMITED TRACING · FULL WEEKLY DIFF
✓PROPOSE TOPICS · 5 VOTING CREDITS
NO CARD REQUIRED — WHEN THE 14 DAYS END, YOU DECIDE. NOT US.
// WHAT WE ASK BACK
1USE IT ON A REAL QUESTION YOU CARE ABOUT — NOT A DEMO CLICK-THROUGH
2TELL US WHAT BROKE, WHAT LIED, WHAT WAS MISSING — SETTINGS → SEND FEEDBACK
3ONE 30-MIN DEBRIEF (CALL OR WRITTEN) BEFORE YOUR WINDOW CLOSES
// IF YOU STAY — SEED TESTER STANDING
+A FOUNDING SEAT HELD FOR YOU THROUGH YOUR 14 DAYS
+SEED TESTER BADGE ON YOUR CONTRIBUTOR PROFILE — NEVER ISSUED AGAIN
+YOUR NAME IN THE CREDITS OF CASES YOUR FEEDBACK SHAPED
←> UPGRADE — FOUNDING ANNUAL
FOUNDING ANNUAL€89.00 / YEAR
UNUSED MONTHLY, PRORATED−€4.50
CHARGED TODAY€84.50
RENEWSAUG 04 2027 · €89/YR
● FOUNDING SEAT
FOUNDING NUMBER · COUNCIL · PRIORITY CASE NOMINATION · EARLY FEATURE ACCESS €89/YR LOCKED WHILE YOUR ANNUAL MEMBERSHIP STAYS ACTIVE
CONFIRM UPGRADE — PAY €84.50 TODAY →
PRORATION IS COMPUTED BY STRIPE AT CHARGE TIME — FINAL AMOUNT MAY DIFFER SLIGHTLY. YOUR MONTHLY PLAN IS REPLACED; NO DOUBLE BILLING. FOUNDING STATUS IS GRANTED ONLY AFTER PAYMENT SUCCEEDS.
←> CANCEL MEMBERSHIP
One question, then you're done — no retention tricks. You keep full access until .
// WHY ARE YOU LEAVING? — REQUIRED
// ANYTHING ELSE? — OPTIONAL
PICK A REASON TO CONTINUE
CANCELLING STOPS THE NEXT CHARGE · ACCESS RUNS TO PERIOD END · REACTIVATE ANY TIME BEFORE THEN
←> FEEDBACK
Raise anything — a wrong label, a missing source, a challenge to a causal edge. Disputes about case content enter the ledger with your handle attached.
// WHAT KIND
INCORRECT LABEL MISSING SOURCE DISPUTE AN EDGE TRANSLATION APP PROBLEM OTHER
// WHERE
CASE 001 · OVERVIEW · MAR 2023 EVENTPICK →
// DETAIL
The Andromeda entry lists SWR — the explosive-trace finding was first reported by…_
FILE IT →
CONTENT DISPUTES GET A PUBLIC ANSWER FROM THE CURATORS
TOPIC POOL YOU DECIDE WHAT GETS TRACED NEXT
NEXT PICK: AUG 0114 OPEN PROPOSALS
● CURATING NOW — PICKED JUL 01 · 486 VOTES · RECORD BUILD
Baltic undersea cable cuts
YOUR CREDITSi:
⊕ HOME▦ INDEX◧ DESK◇ POOL
←> PROPOSE A TOPIC
Propose the Case Trace curates next. Proposals are reviewed first — some get merged with similar ones — and only then enter the public candidate pool.
// PROPOSED TOPIC
South China Sea — who is militarizing which reef?_
49 / 120
// CORE QUESTION
Which reefs gained new military structures since 2020 — and who built what?
// WHY IT MATTERS
Seven claimants, one shipping artery — and the record drifts apart by language.
// COUNTRIES / LANGUAGES · KNOWN SOURCES
PH · VN · MY · CN — EN / ZH / VI · AMTI satellite series · UNCLOS filings
⚠ SIMILAR IN POOL — VOTE INSTEAD OF SPLITTING Maritime claims in the South China Sea
▲ VOTE · 156
SUBMIT FOR REVIEW →
REVIEWED FOR SCOPE, FEASIBILITY AND RISK BEFORE ENTERING THE CANDIDATE POOL
←> PROFILE — YOUR STANDING
K. REYES FIELD ANALYST ○ NOT YET VERIFIED — TIER IV RUNS AN ID CHECK MEMBER SINCE MAR 2026 · STREAK 6 WKS
BADGE TIERS — TAP TO PREVIEW
CREDITS
14BALANCE
23EARNED
9SPENT ON VOTES
RECORD
EVIDENCE ACCEPTED9 / 12 FILED
CHALLENGES UPHELD3 / 5 RAISED
PROPOSALS PICKED1 / 2
ACCURACY75%
NEXT TIER — SENIOR ANALYST
9 / 20 ACCEPTED CONTRIBUTIONS · 3 / 5 UPHELD CHALLENGES TIER IV (VERIFIED INVESTIGATOR) ADDITIONALLY REQUIRES AN IDENTITY CHECK.
SPECIALTY — EARNED FROM ACCEPTED WORK
MARITIME · 6 OSINT-GEO · 4 REGISTRIES · 2
PIN BOARD GLOBE PAPERS IN-TRAY PROPOSE DRAWER BADGE
//✕ CLOSE
YOUR DESK · TAP AN OBJECT
⊕ HOME▦ INDEX◧ DESK◇ POOL